IDF predicts 10,000 direct rocket hits and hundreds of dead in next war

The Israel Defense Forces’ bleak scenario for the next war includes at least 350 dead and 10,000 direct rocket strikes on population centers, Channel 10 reported on Thursday.

The IDF recently presented its predictions to the National Security Cabinet, which touched on the possibility of a war on all fronts. Such a conflict would include fighting against terrorist factions in the Gaza Strip, Hezbollah, as well as Syrian and Iranian forces, and would see the entire country under threat of rocket attacks. However, the IDF estimates that most of some 230,000 projectiles they’re predicting will be fired at Israel would fall in open areas.

The perceived wisdom is that most of these projectiles would be short- to mid-range rockets such as Grads and mortars, which are less accurate. As such, the IDF estimates that only around 1 percent of these weapons would hit populated areas, if the Iron Dome fails to intercept them.

The war scenario comes ahead of nationwide home front drills set to take place next week. The IDF says that although the security establishment is well-prepared to meet the threat from rockets, Hezbollah’s more advanced weaponry poses a stiffer challenge, as evidenced by the ground-to-air missiles that missed Israeli fighter jets flying over Syria earlier this week.

The army also anticipates a mass infiltration of Hezbollah’s elite Radwan Battalion into areas inside Israel’s northern border, with the aim of taking over an Israeli locality near the frontline.

Hezbollah also has a significant arsenal of drones to be reckoned with, many of them manufactured by Iran and equipped with offensive capabilities, according to the security establishment. The Israeli Air Force would be tasked with meeting this threat.

The IDF is also concerned that terrorist groups operating over the border in Syria — including a local branch of the Islamic State group — may use chemical or other non-conventional weapons, for example cholera, against the Israeli Golan Heights. As such, the Home Front Command has been replenishing supplies of gas mask kits.

Fears of such a scenario have, however, decreased following President Bashar al-Assad’s regime destroying most of its stores of chemical weapons.